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‘The dam could break’: Nate Silver thinks Trump’s ‘national emergency’ may be in real peril from Senate GOP

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Is President Donald Trump’s decision to fund his long-promised border wall by bypassing Congress and declaring a “national emergency” what will finally push many Republicans to oppose him?

Polling expert Nate Silver, who has written an analysis of where things stand with Republican senators with journalist Perry Bacon Jr., thinks it very well could be.

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In their unofficial “whip count” of Republican senators, Silver and Bacon find that there is already enough opposition to easily pass the 50-vote threshold necessary to send the bill to the president’s desk, as the resolution being planned by House Democrats does not require 60 votes to invoke cloture on debate.

“By FiveThirtyEight’s count, at least eight GOP senators — Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander, Maine’s Susan Collins, Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, Kentucky’s Rand Paul, Florida’s Marco Rubio, Nebraska’s Ben Sasse, North Carolina’s Thom Tillis and Pennsylvania’s Pat Toomey — have said they oppose the national emergency declaration,” they write.

In theory, if every GOP senator who is opposed to the emergency order votes with all Democrats in the Senate, the measure would garner 55 votes.

But what happens if Trump vetoes the measure? Silver and Bacon write that it would be significantly harder to get a 67-vote majority in the Senate to override the president’s veto, but they don’t think it’s impossible.

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“In the Senate, 67 votes would be needed to override his veto, meaning 20 Republicans would need to break with the president,” they write. “As noted above, there are more than 20 Senate Republicans wary of this move. So it’s at least theoretically possible that the dam could break; the fissures run deeper than the typical issues on which only a handful of Republicans like Collins and Murkowski are considering a vote against the president.”

Read the whole analysis here.


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Wall Street is ignoring the omens of recession — here’s why

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The Federal Reserve seems a lot more concerned about the state of the economy than it’s been letting on.

The Fed lowered its target interest rate by a quarter point on Sept. 18, the second such cut since July – and the first reductions since the Great Recession more than 10 years ago.

Judging by the words of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, this isn’t that big a deal. In his statement following the decision, he said: “We took this step to help keep the U.S. economy strong in the face of some notable developments and to provide insurance against ongoing risks.”

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2020 Election

Elizabeth Warren accuses Congress of complicity in Trump’s continued abuses

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Sen. Elizabeth Warren accused the U.S. Congress of complicity in President Donald Trump's continued abuse of power late Friday, after reports surfaced of his alleged attempts to solicit foreign meddling in the 2020 presidential election, and reiterated her demand that Democrats use their majority in the House to pursue impeachment.

Warren's tweeted statement came hours after the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden's opposition to a Ukrainian prosecutor in 2016.

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‘Resistance’ liberals love the FBI and CIA — but history says they don’t love you back

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A freaky moment recently transpired on television. In a nonfiction adaptation of “American Horror Story,” Bill Maher, nominally a member of the liberal “Resistance,” led his audience and guests in applauding and paying tribute to the FBI and CIA. To her credit, panelist (and rival talk-show host) Krystal Ball remained stoic, refusing to bring her hands together or smile. But even she allowed the moment to pass without noting the obvious: The CIA and the FBI are two of the most anti-democratic and violent forces in the history of our country.

Maher’s weird and historically illiterate “tribute” to two organizations with endless résumés of human rights violations, political persecution of dissidents and overseas coups directed at democratic governments — not to mention stunning failure at the principal tasks of their mission — punctuated his declaration of gratitude for “our safety” since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. The comedian and commentator then tried to dress this right-wing, jingoistic bromide in progressive drag by reminding the crowd that President Trump has “disrespected” both agencies.

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