One of the most underreported stories of 2018 was the unbelievable turnout during a midterm election in the last 100 years, EclectaBlog wrote Sunday, and 2020 will likely be the same.
In a post on the Michigan-focused site, LOLGOP sounded the alarm that the next election would likely bring Democrats out in droves for the primary and caucus elections and mobilize opponents of President Donald Trump.
“We already know interest is running high given so many other indicators, so I expect turnout will run high for the 2020 primaries on the Democratic side,” Prof. Michael McDonald of the U.S. Elections Project told The New York Times. “We may see a hundred-year storm for turnout.”
McDonald warned, “election officials: start preparing now for a hundred-year turnout storm.”
In the months leading up to the 2018 election, Florida officials begged for help from the Department of Homeland Security because they couldn’t secure their election. DHS reportedly blew them off. To make matters worse, 15 percent of Parkland students in Broward County were rejected or failed to arrive in time and were never counted.
“If you are voting in Florida, and you are young in Florida, you have a good chance of your ballot not being accepted. Imagine going to the ATM, and every ten times you go, instead of spitting out your money, they take it, or they lose it,” said Daniel A. Smith, chairman of the political science department at the University of Florida.
To make matters worse, Republican-led legislatures are fighting to create barriers for young people and people of color, who tend to be Democratic voters.
EclectaBlog noted that 4 million voters who supported former President Barack Obama didn’t turn out in 2016 and 7 percent of those who did, cast ballots for Trump. The Trump wins in states like Michigan and Wisconsin were so narrow that a massive turnout could be enough to turn states blue, particularly if enough outreach is done this time around. But it’s unclear if county registrars and polling places are preparing to undertake such an increase.
“This moment of rabid civic re-engagement is the result of multiple emergencies that will be decided in 2020,” LOLGOP wrote in his assessment. “It’s also an opportunity to not only score wins on the federal level that reverse some of the most destructive trends we face. It’s also a census year. So on the state level, it could create fair maps that would transform democracy on the next level.”
He warned of “cautious hope,” but preparation, organization and protection might be the keys to the best mobilization.