During his “Reality Check” segment on CNN’s “New Day” analyst John Avlon took a hard look at President Donald Trump’s boast in Orlando that he could be re-elected with only the support of his rabid base — and then disabused the president of the notion.
At his rally on Tuesday night, Trump claimed he didn’t need additional voters to remain in the Oval Office after the 2020 election, telling his adoring fans, “I think my base is so strong, I’m not sure I have to do that.”
According to Avlon, the president is bluffing.
“Donald Trump doesn’t need no stinking swing voters to get re-elected,” Avlon smirked as he began. “He said ‘I think my base is so strong, I don’t think I have to do that,’ and this is play to the base on steroids but it fits the way he’s governed.”
“Trump is massively popular within the Republican Party,” the CNN analyst continued. “But he’s the only president in the history of Gallup polling never to be above 50 percent approval rating in his presidency and no president has been re-elected with a net negative rating. He can’t ignore swing voters and be re-elected and that’s because the base isn’t big enough to win on its own.”
“Only 30 percent of Americans identify as Republican, Democrats 31 percent while independents are at 38 percent, ” he elaborated. “.Donald Trump won the independent vote over Hillary Clinton 46 percent to 42 percent. In part that may be because Trump was seen as less conservative. Democrats won independent voters big-time in the 2018 midterms by a 12-point margin and that’s three times what Trump won them by before — and that trend is not Trump’s friend.”
UK voters face a stark left-right choice that will (finally) decide Brexit — and might shape America’s future
Precisely as Donald Trump is being impeached by the U.S. Congress, British voters go to the polls on Thursday in a history-shaping national election, the U.K.’s third in less than five years. It has numerous echoes and resonances of the forthcoming U.S. presidential election, starting with the charismatic but abominable incumbent prime minister, Boris Johnson, who resembles Trump translated into Upper-Class Twit. But the differences are also striking, none more so than the fact that despite the enormous stakes in this election, in which Johnson’s Conservative Party and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party have vowed to take the nation in dramatically different directions, the entire campaign has been confined to six weeks.
Robert Reich makes case for why Sanders or Warren—’not some billionaire-backed milquetoast moderate’—offer best chance to beat Trump
"These two have most of the grassroots energy, most of the enthusiasm, and most of the ideas that are critical for winning in 2020."
Former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich released a video Tuesday explaining his case for why Sens. Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren pose a far better chance of defeating President Donald Trump in 2020 than "some billionaire-backed milquetoast moderate."
Your guide to the 2020 Democrats: Who’s in, who’s out and WTF is going on anyway?
There's a frontrunner, who has led almost every national poll since last winter, allowing for a few outlier polls and a brief period around the end of the summer. There are three other leading contenders, two of whom have been near the top of the polls for months, while the third only recently emerged from the pack. There is a pack of dark-horse candidates, whose odds of being elected president now approach zero but who remain in the race for various reasons. There are some with no shot at all. There are two fringe candidates, likely using this campaign to explore career options. And there's a pair of billionaires who hope to buy their way to the presidency by spending alarming amounts of money on campaign ads. That probably won't work — but you might have heard the same thing about another billionaire in that other party, a few years back.