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‘The alarm’s gone off’: The economy is showing one important sign of heading into recession

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A leading indicator of an impending recession is sounding — loudly, according to analysts.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, as of this week, has been inverted for a full quarter, which has flipped ahead of each of the last official recessions over the past 50 years, without a single false alarm, reported Slate.

A yield curve becomes inverted when the return on long-term U.S. government bonds dip below short-term bonds, which is seen as a sign the market expects weak or nonexistent growth in the next few years, and little inflation.

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Yield curves don’t cause recessions, but their inversion can make business leaders reluctant to hire or invest because they’re worried about economic slowdown.

The last time an inverted yield curve didn’t signal a recession was a brief inversion in the 1960s, when growth dropped but did not fall all the way into the negative.

The yield curve started to invert this year in March, which prompted concerns, but it has now stayed upside-down for a full quarter — which has been the leading indicator of recession.

“The alarm’s gone off,” said Campbell Harvey, the Duke University finance professor who first noticed the relationship between yield curves and recessions.

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2020 Election

‘Nice deflection, Mr President’: Adam Schiff busts Trump for trying to blame him for his leaky administration

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Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) took a shot at President Donald Trump on Sunday morning after the president tried to blame him for the leak describing a classified meeting lawmakers had with an intelligence official who warned the bipartisan group that the Kremlin is trying to help the president get re-elected.

As the president prepared to leave the White House for India, he told reporters that Schiff was to blame for the leaked meeting story, with the president insisting he personally had not been briefed on the report explosive report.

Responding to a 'Meet the Press" clip of the president making his accusation, Schiff tweeted back: "Nice deflection, Mr. President. But your false claims fool no one. You welcomed Russian help in 2016, tried to coerce Ukraine’s help in 2019, and won’t protect our elections in 2020. Now you fired your intel chief for briefing Congress about it. You’ve betrayed America. Again."

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George Conway taunts Republican voters for sticking by ‘psycho buffoon’ Trump

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Conservative attorney George Conway launched a mini-tweet storm on Sunday morning just as President Donald Trump was leaving the country for a visit to India, telling Republican voters that they didn't have to settle for him being their candidate in 2016.

Along the way, he described the president as "a psycho and a buffoon."

In the series of tweets, Conway -- the husband of Trump White House adviser Kellyanne Conway -- noted that a more mainstream candidate could have won in 2016, writing, "Some perspective for supporters of @realDonaldTrump: A stable and competent GOP candidate would have won the popular vote in 2016, perhaps even by a few percentage points; a stable and competent GOP president, having inherited such a strong economy and goosed it with massive deficit spending, would have approval ratings of at least 55%."

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Why Americans are afraid to have babies

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Many Democrats are completely fixated on getting Donald Trump out of the Oval Office, no matter what it takes (or which Democratic presidential candidate). While that's certainly an important and obvious goal, the political stakes in 2020 are far, far greater than that.

This article first appeared in Salon.

Yes, there are compounding, existential and political crises that go beyond corrupt Beltway intrigue so much of the media fixates on.

Capitalism is in crisis. It is manifested in the deterioration in local conditions, a decline in the birthrate as well as in entrepreneurship.

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