Based upon the most recent polling, Donald Trump will not only lose in November but will be blown out by Democratic challenger Joe Biden, according to CNN polling analyst Harry Enten.
In a written report for CNN, Enten pointed to the president’s numbers in battleground Minnesota, where Biden leads the president 57% to 41% among likely voters, and said it should send up a red flag for Trump campaign officials.
As he wrote, “The Trump campaign has made a significant investment into turning Minnesota red, after Trump lost it by 1.5 points in 2016. The polling shows his efforts are not working,” before adding, “They are part of a larger sign suggesting that Trump still has a ways to go to win not just in Minnesota but over the electoral map at-large.”
Saying the Trump campaign is not showing any signs of being competitive, the polling analyst added, “There is also the distinct possibility that Biden blows Trump out. It’s something I’ve noted before, and the Washington Post’s David Byler pointed out a few weeks ago. If you were to look at the polling right now, there’s a pretty clear picture. Biden has leads of somewhere between five and eight points in a number of states Trump won four years ago: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those plus the states Hillary Clinton won get Biden to about 290 electoral votes.”
According to Enten, the president is also having major problems achieving any separation in states he should be able to count on — including Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.
“Indeed, it’s quite possible he’s actually up in either Georgia, Iowa, Ohio or Texas, and we just don’t know it because there isn’t enough fresh data,” he wrote before adding, “For example, Clinton only lost in Georgia by five points in 2016, and Biden’s doing about five points better in the national polls than she did in the final vote. It would make sense, therefore, that Biden’s quite close to Trump there at this point. Wins in any of those states by Biden could push his Electoral College tally up to about 340 electoral votes or higher, depending on which states Biden wins. Victories in all four would push him well over 400 electoral votes.”
Then the analysts dropped the hammer on Trump’s campaign by writing, “Biden has a better chance (about 45%) of winning 340 electoral votes than Trump has of winning the election (about 25%). Biden’s chance of taking 400 electoral votes is pretty much the same of Trump winning.”
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