Donald Trump’s approval rating has plunged to just 37 percent – one of the lowest of his presidency – as Democratic victories in the 2025 off-year elections signal growing voter frustration with the president and the GOP, according to political analyst Marina Dunbar.
Dunbar, a Guardian U.S. fellow, wrote Friday that this week’s results reveal more than just local political dynamics.
“Whatever the reason for the Democratic sweep, it’s clear that Trump’s plunging popularity with Americans had something to do with it,” she wrote. Democrats flipped several previously Republican strongholds, transforming what had been reliably red districts into progressive victories, she added.
Dunbar built her case by telling readers in her latest analysis that the wave included landmark outcomes like Zohran Mamdani’s historic victory in New York City, Democratic gubernatorial wins in New Jersey and Virginia, and flips in deep-red Mississippi, where Democrats captured two state senate seats, breaking a 13-year Republican supermajority.
But, according to Dunbar, results in smaller districts "may have offered an even greater insight into the political landscape heading into the midterms."
In Erie County, Pennsylvania – a swing region that narrowly favored Trump in 2024 – Democrat Christina Vogel won the county executive race by a staggering 24-point margin. Democrats also gained control of New York’s Onondaga County legislature for the first time in nearly five decades.
Progressive policies resonated as well, the analyst added. Colorado voters approved school meal programs and ballot measures to retain surplus tax funds, while Maine decisively rejected a restrictive voter ID proposal.
However, Dunbar still emphasized that while the blue wave energized the left, the Democratic Party still faces challenges.
“Democrats aren’t out of the water just yet,” she concluded as she cautioned the party. “In July, the party’s own approval rating hit a 30-year low. The blue wave of wins may have those on the left celebrating across the US, but it still falls on the Democratic party to see if they can carry this energy and youth-electrifying messaging to the midterms and beyond.”
