CNN's Harry Enten highlighted a pair of "flashing red siren signs" for Republicans heading into next year's midterm elections.
Democrats are feeling good about their chances in gubernatorial races this November in New Jersey and Virginia, and the data analyst told "CNN News Central" those races could serve as an early predictor for the 2026 congressional elections.
"These two races are the biggest flashing red siren signs for Republicans," Enten said. "Why is that? Let's take a look right now at the prediction market odds in both New Jersey and Virginia, and in both cases, the Democrats are favored. Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, 89 percent chance of winning, according to the prediction markets. How about Abigail Spanberger in the great commonwealth of Virginia? We're talking a 94 percent chance of winning. I was looking at the polling data, as well. The Democrats in both these races hold high single-digit leads. Obviously, Glenn Youngkin, currently the Republican governor of Virginia, was able to win there, and in New Jersey, the Democrats barely squeaked by back in 2021."
"Right now, the polling leads in both those states are larger for the Democrats, they're in better position than they were back in 2021," he added. "That's why in both cases, the Democrats are heavily favored, and as I said earlier on, to me this is a flashing red siren warning sign for Republicans."
Historical trends show that off-year election cycles can offer a peek into future election results, Enten said.
"So you see the Democrats leading in both of these races, right, predicted to win in both of them," Enten said. "Why should people nationally care? Why am I saying it's a flashing red siren for Republicans? If the same party has won in New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races dating back since 1989. Guess who won the U.S. House the following year six out of seven times? The same party wins nationally and they win the U.S. House of Representatives if, in fact, they win in both Virginia and New Jersey."
"That's a cool stat," interjected co-host Kate Bolduan. "That's a really interesting look, Harry."
Watch the video below or at this link.
- YouTube youtu.be
