President Donald Trump has helped clear a path for Democrats to retake control of the U.S. Senate, according to fresh polling data.
A new New York Times/Siena poll across six Senate battleground states found an opening for Democrats to flip enough seats to regain the Senate majority, and the surveys found the 80-year-old president was largely to blame for his party's shaky foundation.
"Democrats face an uphill battle to win control of the Senate but have pulled within striking distance of enough Republican-held seats to put the majority in play this fall," the Times reported. "Republicans are hampered by the unpopularity of President Trump and his diminished standing on the economy, while most of the Democratic candidates are so far running ahead of their party’s own struggling brand, the polls show."
Republicans currently hold 53 seats, meaning Democrats would need to flip at least four while defending all their own vulnerable seats. The Times/Siena surveys examined the six states seen as Democrats' best pickup opportunities — Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — and found that if the election were held today, Republicans would likely hold on to enough of those races to keep the majority.
The numbers mark a significant shift.
Trump carried five of the six states in 2024, winning them by an average of eight points, while the new polling shows the Senate races tied on average, 47 percent to 47 percent.
Democrats hold a slim lead in Maine and a stronger one in North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by seven points. Republicans are narrowly ahead in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, while Texas is tied.
The shift appears driven largely by economic frustration. Just 36 percent of voters approved of Trump's handling of cost-of-living issues, dropping to 24 percent among independents. Voters said jobs, inflation and the economy were by far their top concerns, and by a 14-point margin said Trump's policies have done more harm than good.
Trump's overall approval sits at 43 percent, with 54 percent disapproving. His handling of the war with Iran and gas prices also drew weak marks, though immigration remains his strongest issue.
Democratic candidates are also outperforming their party's brand. In every state surveyed, voters were less likely to call the Democratic Senate candidate "too far left" than to say the same of the Democratic Party overall — a gap that was widest in Iowa.
Democratic candidates also posted higher favorability ratings than their Republican opponents in five of the six states, with Maine's Graham Platner, dogged by controversy, the exception.
Democrats currently hold an enthusiasm edge, with 93 percent of Democratic voters saying they are very likely to vote compared with 87 percent of Republicans — helping Democratic candidates outrun their party's standing even in redder states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.
