CNN's data guru is saying a "massive move to the left" is happening following the large Democratic turnout in Arizona — a reflection of what's happening nationwide.
"What a massive move to the left, to the Democratic side we're talking about here," statistician Harry Enten reported early Wednesday. "My goodness gracious."
He pointed to Latino voters in Arizona showing up in droves, saying "Democrats doing much better than they were doing in Latino districts. A lot of Latinos live in Arizona, seventh district, and not surprisingly, Grijalva doing 17 points better than Kamala Harris did back just a little less than a year ago."
He compared the results from Arizona's election Tuesday night to Kamala Harris' results in the 2024 presidential election.
"Democrats are doing on average, get this, 18 points better than Kamala Harris did back in 2024," he said. "So the 17 point over-performance last night matches the average that we see. The 18 point over-performance that Democrats have had in U.S. House elections. Again, this is one of the best signs that Democrats have had so far. When people vote, Democrats are doing significantly better than they did, just a little bit less than a year ago."
It's a major shift for Democrats ahead of midterm elections, he said, pointing to history as a marker for what's to come.
"What it says is if a party outperforms in special elections going all the way back since the 05-06 cycle, they go on to win the U.S. House of Representatives five out of five times," he said. "We'll see if it becomes six out of six. But the bottom line is history says that the Democrats outperforming just like they did last night in Arizona. Seventh district, the presidential baseline is a very, very good sign. As these districts move very much to the left."
Adelita Grijalva, who is the daughter of longtime late Arizona congressman Raúl Grijalva, who died after battling cancer, won the race Tuesday to succeed him. This further narrows the gap for the Republican majority in the House, the New York Times reports.
The House now has 219 Republicans, 214 Democrats and two remaining vacancies left.
