On Monday, writing for The Atlantic, former George W. Bush speechwriter David Frum outlined the dire situation the Republican Party finds itself in — and how leaders and donors are beginning to realize all the money they have invested in former President Donald Trump is only handing them losses.
"Five months ago, their party looked likely to take both the U.S. House and the Senate in 2022. Republicans appeared ready to consolidate their leads over Democrats in the numbers of governorships and state legislatures held. Best of all, they seemed to have quietly sidelined former President Donald Trump," wrote Frum. "Now their prospects look clouded."
Everything from the improving economy to a series of policy wins by President Joe Biden to the public anger over the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade have got in the way, noted Frum — but one of the biggest problems is that Trump is once again hijacking the party.
"The enforcement of a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago has rallied tribal Republicans to Trump’s defense," wrote Frum. "The search boosted his fundraising to $1 million a day — and helped to extend his lead over Governor Ron DeSantis in a putative 2024 primary contest. NBC reported on a poll that showed Trump, pre-search, tied with DeSantis in a multicandidate field. Post-search, he led DeSantis 52–20. Although the Republican base loves Trump, Republican leaders recognize that he’s a general-election loser. Trump at the head of the ticket in 2024 spells trouble; even a reminder that Trump is at large in 2022 hurts down ballot. That’s why Republican leaders have pleaded with Trump to delay any announcement of a 2024 run until after November’s voting."
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"The lesson for Republican leaders and donors is that sticking with Trump will be expensive," wrote Frum. "Trump himself and pro-Trump candidates are hurting the GOP’s election chances. Trump lost the presidency in 2020. Pro-Trump candidates cost the GOP its hold on the U.S. Senate in 2021. More pro-Trump candidates are slumping badly in 2022. More GOP stumbles mean more cash for Democratic constituencies. Trump tried one exit from this predicament in 2021: a violent overthrow of his election defeat. That did not work."
"More bills will come in until Republicans accept that he and his faction will not disappear on their own," concluded Frum. "If they want to see the back of him, they’re going to have to grab him themselves and push him out the door with their own hands. If they don’t, their donors had better get used to more big payouts to more Democratic constituencies in the election cycles ahead."
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