Iowa Republicans believe Donald Trump has no chance of winning the state's 2024 primary election, according to a report.
GOP political consultant Michael Murphy traveled to Iowa to get a sense of the party's preferences ahead of the presidential election, which he detailed for The Bulwark. He found the unanimous sentiment at the annual Culver Lecture at Simpson College was that Trump would lose the Iowa caucus, and maybe even finish in third place.
“Of any 10 strong Trump people I know from 2016,” said one younger field operative, “at least half are gone.”
Trump finished second against Sen. Ted Cruz in the 2016 primary, and party leaders think his support has dropped significantly since then, leaving the field wide open for next February's caucus.
"Iowa’s GOP regulars think Trump is a certain loser against Biden, I was told, and the state’s powerful evangelicals agree; they are looking for a younger, more authentic champion," Murphy wrote. "They see the stakes as being so high in their war against the secular left that a slow general election pony like Trump seems a foolish bet."
"Much has yet to happen in the campaign," he concluded. "But Iowa Republicans are very much open for business and shopping for a new face. And should Trump indeed lose Iowa, he’ll be a bleeding target on the road to New Hampshire, and the race will be upended."
