An analyst Monday gave a stark warning ahead of the elections Tuesday, saying that voters are signaling they have had enough and are ready to say "to hell with you all."
President Donald Trump's approval rating has hit a second-term low: dropping to 63% among Americans disapproving of him and 37% approving of him, according to a new CNN poll released Monday, just ahead of the off-year election day. Democrats are also showing an advantage when it comes to motivation ahead of the elections, with 67% of Democratic leaning voters saying they are highly motivated to vote vs. 46% of Republican leaning voters saying they are motivated to cast their ballots.
"Republicans are going to have a bad day tomorrow," Frank Luntz, pollster and communications strategist, told CNN anchors Boris Sanchez and Brianna Keilar.
Many of the elections are local or statewide, he added. A key race on the West Coast has his attention.
"But the one that matters the most for the country is the vote in California, whether or not they're going to change the laws for redistricting," Luntz said. "And that could mean as much as a five-seat Democratic gain, five-seat Republican loss if [Gov.] Gavin Newsom is successful in his ballot initiative. At this point, I think he will be. And that's going to send shockwaves across the country as people begin to look at what's going to happen a year from now. I do believe Democrats win the governorship in New Jersey and Virginia, a socialist is going to be elected mayor of New York [City]. But the one that I'm going to be watching most carefully is California."
As the government shutdown drags out into its second month, Americans are tired of it. And that could be reflected in the election outcome, he added.
"And this is the breaking point. When you don't pay our men and women in uniform and they have to go without their weekly paychecks. And you start to have people who cannot afford their food and fuel, then it starts to have an impact. And then people start to say, 'Why is this happening?'" Luntz said.
"I believe that the shutdown is politically motivated," he added. "I believe that if they wanted to, they could find common ground, but they choose not to. And that is hurting the Republican brand, the Republican reputation. Their numbers are down. As you point out in your own polling, with Donald Trump. But the numbers that have fallen the worst, to my surprise, are the Democrats. Everyone is being hurt by this. Everyone's credibility and respect and looking at the government and the public just looks at this and says, 'Why? Why can't you find some agreement? Why can't you give? Can you? Why can't you cooperate?' And that's going to be a very big question. Wednesday and Thursday when this election is over. It is hurting the Republicans, but it seems to be hurting the Democrats even more."
Although it's difficult to predict what might happen next, redistricting is expected to impact the future.
"I'm going to be direct with you. The idea of changing the rules midway is abhorrent that these districts, the lines are drawn and they're supposed to sit for 10 years. And the fact that Republicans have changed the rules in Texas to change them in Ohio, they changed them in North Carolina. Democrats are trying to do the same. They filed lawsuits in New York. They're trying to win in California. It's going to undermine the faith and trust that we have in democracy. And I think it's one of the worst things that could be happening right now," Luntz said.
It's worrying to see the shifting attitudes towards government, especially amid a government shutdown, inflation, affordability and redistricting.
"And I look at this objectively as someone who measures public opinion and it is frightening how low these institutions, their credibility, how much they have fallen, and how the lack of belief and faith and trust in our democracy seems to be hitting an all-time low," Luntz said. "And I am concerned, and I'm hoping that the people who engage in this process pay attention, because we're reaching a breaking point, and it's coming. And after that breaking point, who knows? Who can predict what happens when the public finally says, 'To hell with you all?' And that's where we're heading right now."
