According to a report from Politico, Republican strategists faced with the possibility of not having Donald Trump on the ticket -- and reeling from having lost the suburbs in the 2020 election due to him -- are trying to plot out ways to regain seats lost in the 2018 and 2020 elections.
The report notes that the Trump years have led them to throw out old ways of getting votes which, in large part, has been focused on redistricting to create pockets that are Republican-friendly.
As Politico's Ally Mutnick and Elena Schenider write, "Traditionally, state legislators and political mapmakers rely heavily on recent election results for clues about how communities will vote in the future — baselines they use to gerrymander advantageous districts for their party. But the whiplash in Trump-era elections make drawing conclusions from those results more complicated this year. And both parties' strategists know that if they make bad bets, drawing districts based on elections that were driven more by Trump's singular personality than by trends that will persist until 2030, those mistakes could swing control of the House against them over the next decade."
According to Adam Kincaid, the executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, "People on both sides are going to have to look at these things and try to figure out: Are there any things that we can point to that are predictive, and where do we see the party heading?"
The report notes that losing the suburbs is a great concern to Republicans with one former GOP lawmaker using Florida as a prime example.
According to Politico, "In South Florida, in particular, the 'Trump effect is a double-edged sword"' said former Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo, who lost to Mucarsel-Powell in 2018. 'While it generated this trend where Republicans are doing better with working-class voters of all races and ethnicities, they're also losing support among higher-income and college-educated voters in the suburbs. It does make the challenge of drawing districts more daunting.'"
Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) agreed, saying Republicans can't push their luck by radically altering voting districts.
"I've watched us get in trouble by stretching the rubber band too great," Cole explained. "If you're running into what you think might be a good election, and this could be a good election for us, don't get greedy. Don't. Because there are going to be some bad elections out there."
You can read more here.