Republicans don't want to talk about it, but there's a likely leadership change on the horizon if they lose their House majority in November's elections.
The House Republican Conference is publicly projecting confidence that they'll hold on to the majority, but privately it's worried that affordability concerns, the Iran war and President Donald Trump's unpopularity will cost them — and Punchbowl News reported they're whispering about whether House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will remain in charge.
"The last two times Republicans lost the majority — 2006 and 2018 — their speaker didn’t return as minority leader," Punchbowl reported. "Dennis Hastert declined to run for the post in 2006. Paul Ryan was already on his way out of the door in 2018. In fact, you have to go back to Joseph Martin in the 1940s and 1950s to find a Republican speaker who lost the majority yet remained as minority leader. So history is against the 54-year-old Johnson."
However, Johnson raises tons of cash and has plenty of supporters in the GOP conference and Trump's backing — which is crucial in a party defined by loyalty to the president. But he could be miscast as a minority leader.
"Being minority leader means fighting the majority every day about everything," Punchbowl noted. "The top Republican in any minority will have to be an attack dog against Democrats, who are vowing to investigate every facet of Trump’s presidency."
That's where Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) could emerge as a top choice to replace Johnson.
"He’s chair of the House Judiciary Committee, and he made his name sticking up for Trump and lambasting Democrats," Punchbowl reported. "Trump sees Jordan as a championship wrestler who’s always ready to brawl."
The Ohio Republican came close to becoming speaker instead of Jordan, but he's had a rocky relationship with GOP moderates, although they're the most likely to lose in swing-seat districts.
"Jordan would be a prime choice if Republicans want to dump the current leadership slate and start over," Punchbowl reported. "Will he run against Johnson? That’s tough. It would depend on Trump. But Jordan is one of the few non-leadership Republicans you should watch."
