Legendary Democratic strategist James Carville is raising urgent warnings about the New Hampshire Senate race, saying it demands far more attention than it's currently receiving.
"What I'm seeing in New Hampshire right now is keeping me up at night — and it should concern y'all too," Carville wrote in a campaign memo, emphasizing he rarely writes such alerts.
The race between Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu is running essentially tied, with recent polling showing the candidates separated by just one to three points. Carville stressed the stakes are existential for Democratic Senate control.
"If Chris Pappas loses, Democrats need to flip five seats instead of four. That math does not exist," he wrote bluntly.
Carville drew a parallel to Pennsylvania's 2024 Senate upset, when Democrat Bob Casey lost despite leading throughout the cycle.
"A race that has been tied for six months is not a comfortable position. It is a warning sign. I have seen what happens when we assume a race is in-hand and the resources don't follow," he cautioned.
He characterized Sununu as a formidable opponent with establishment backing, noting the Republican spent decades building personal wealth through corporate board positions before returning to politics.
"Listen: I don't write memos like this for every race. I wrote this one because I'm genuinely worried about what happens if New Hampshire slips away while everyone's looking somewhere else," Carville concluded.
