Having left the Democratic Party over a series of disagreements, independent Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema faces long odds if she chooses to run for re-election – with most polls currently showing she would be lagging behind a Democratic challenger and roughly even with a Republican in a three-way race.
But according to NBC News, she is privately insisting to donors she has a path to victory — which involves winning over Republican voters.
A document she is circulating, titled "Kyrsten's Path to Victory," lays out a roadmap where Sinema could win by attracting 10 to 20 percent of Democrats, 60 to 70 percent of independents, and 25 to 35 percent of Republicans. This is despite the fact that she was a Democrat for most of her time in the Senate, still caucuses with the Democratic Party, and votes with Democrats more frequently than Republicans.
Sinema played a key role in negotiating a number of President Joe Biden's landmark bills, including the infrastructure bill and the first federal gun reform bill in 30 years.
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However, she switched to independent affiliation after a number of public clashes with Democratic Party colleagues.
Sinema, who also reports having $10 million cash on hand for an independent bid, would not be the first sitting senator to fight for re-election without the backing of her original party. Sen. Joe Lieberman won another term as an independent in 2006 after losing the Democratic Party's nomination, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski was re-elected on a write-in campaign in 2010 after a Tea Party challenge cost her the GOP nomination. However, neither Lieberman nor Murkowski voluntarily left their party beforehand.
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Democrats in Arizona have largely lined up behind Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Marine veteran who represents the Phoenix area and caucuses in the progressive bloc. The Republican field is still taking shape; Kari Lake, the pro-Trump former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial candidate, is set to announce a bid; Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is also running, and businessman and 2022 GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters has also expressed interest in another run.
