Donald Trump's long-term plan for Iran may not be as achievable as the president wants it to be, according to a political analyst.
Professor Anthony Glees believes the Trump administration is looking to topple the Iranian government and bring about a friendlier relationship between Iran and the US as a result. This would be a tall order for the president's team, though, as Glees notes that finding a suitable replacement for ayatollah Ali Khamenei after the military action would be hard.
Speaking to Raw Story, Glees said, "It is not at all clear what would happen if Trump decided to take on the Islamist rulers of Iran. By toppling Maduro but replacing him with someone from his side of the political divide in Venezuela, Trump showed a canniness of some quality.
"However, he can't do this in Iran. There are no US-friendly ayatollahs. It is, however, perfectly possible that he will run out of road and be forced into military action.
"This is because on the one hand the ayatollahs are fanatics but can count on fairly hefty support if they say 'no' to Trump's demands, but on the other no one can assemble the sort of armed might that Trump is now displaying with either proceeding into war, or standing them down and looking as if Iran has won."
The US may have the military capacity to take down Khamenei's regime, though a lack of clarity over who would replace the current ayatollah would be a problem for Trump's team, he said.
Glees added, "The US military build-up in the area (Trump has called it an 'armada') is now complete with the arrival of a second massive aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, to join the USS Gerald R Ford.
"This is a far larger strike force than was used by the US to arrest former president Maduro of Venezuela. It can sustain a prolonged attack on Iran, which could topple the regime of the ayatollahs within a few days.
"Of course, one always has to add: Trump is unpredictable. He'd love the ayatollahs to wake up and find US Marines in control of Tehran. But he knows that this is going to be impossible to achieve. They were able to put down a revolt and kill some 30,000 of their own people."
