Ahead of the 2022 midterms, several male pundits claimed that women would likely "move on" from the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision. After all, it was over the summer, and they implied that voters don't remember such things. Republicans, in particular, spoke out that women might be upset about losing their freedom and liberties, but the price of milk was far more of an issue.
They were very, very, very wrong. As the results reveal, many women did care about the economy, but they voted on abortion, explained Slate legal analyst Dahlia Lithwick.
The National Review's Kevin Williamson penned a column claiming he had doubts that the Dobbs decision would be important beyond the "moment."
"So, my sense is that the voters most likely to be motivated in some meaningful way by Dobbs are Democrats in Republican states, which might make a difference in a few races in closely divided electorates," he wrote.
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It was overwhelmingly false. It turns out Republican women care about their rights too, as Montana and Kentucky revealed in their ballot measures passed.
Politico claimed the “Dobbs effect” was a mirage and that people would ultimately care about inflation, Lithwick quoted. They were wrong too. The Telegraph's Nick Allen, penned a piece on Election Day saying that Democrats seriously "miscalculated on abortion and could now pay the price." Nope.
And after weeks of Republican pundits claiming women had "forgotten" about having their rights taken away, even Democrats started to fear the messaging was all wrong. It wasn't until the last minute, that female candidates like Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) began talking about abortion as an economic issue, explaining that having a child is a decision that impacts the economics the most for women.
There was one poll that suggested folks were more concerned about the cost of gas and crime. The Nation's Joan Walsh infamously wrote at the time that one poll can't tell the country women don't care about Dobbs.
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"They told us, implicitly, that women were fickle and inconstant voters, and not to be counted on; and that it was all a mirage, and that what happened this summer in Kansas and Alaska and Michigan and in the New York special election, were all one-offs. All of them," wrote Lithwick.
All of it was wrong.
Polls never reflected the voters who came out over the summer who may not have voted previously. If that was the first election in a while, they weren't considered "likely voters." So, young voters, women and voters of color weren't making it into those polling models.
"In each of the five crucial state initiatives that implicate reproductive rights under state law, abortion rights won. Voters in California, Michigan and Vermont overwhelmingly opted to enshrine Roe in their state constitutions Tuesday night, as did, ruby red Kentucky, where abortion has been illegal since Dobbs came down in June," wrote Lithwick. Montana's ban is headed for a defeat as well.
When the Supreme Court took away reproductive freedom, it was the first time in history that the courts took something away from Americans. Over 50 percent of the electorate said that they were furious about the decision.
"Exit polling from Reuters showed that one in four voters said abortion was their top issue and that about six out of 10 voters said they were 'dissatisfied or angry' about Dobbs," she explained. Those exit polls also didn't reflect the overwhelmingly Democratic early votes and mail-in votes.
Moving forward, more states are likely to mobilize choice initiatives on the ballot and the anti-choice groups aren't giving up on their war to end all abortions. The difference is, they have a lot more opposition than they anticipated.
