On Tuesday, Axios analyzed how Republicans have the potential for huge gains in the Senate over the next two cycles — but also how Democrats could get an opening to prevent it.
"'Democrats are sleepwalking into a Senate disaster,' Yale's Simon Bazelon wrote last week on Matt Yglesias' Substack, Slow Boring," wrote Mike Allen. "'The 2024 map is much worse,' Bazelon added. A close presidential election, he wrote, could doom Democratic Sens. Jon Tester in Montana ... Joe Manchin in West Virginia ... Sherrod Brown in Ohio ... Bob Casey in Pennsylvania ... Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin ... Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona. Plus toss-ups could threaten Sens. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Jackie Rosen in Nevada."
There are still potential wildcards, though.
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"There are several ways Democrats could overcome the GOP’s decisive map edge," said the report. "Dems could nominate a presidential candidate who wins decisively — with a clear majority. That typically lifts party candidates in close races. Or the GOP could nominate a presidential candidate who can't command a majority, or unelectable Senate candidates. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell warns anyone who'll listen that if the GOP keeps putting up fringe candidates, the party will blow an epic opportunity."
Former President Donald Trump has already endorsed a number of candidates with liabilities in this year's Senate contests, including Herschel Walker in Georgia, J.D. Vance in Ohio, and Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. McConnell is reportedly concerned about Senate recruitment causing problems in winnable races.
