Veteran GOP strategist Karl Rove forecasted a tough road for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections – and a potential “major crimp” in the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term.
The prediction came Wednesday in a Wall Street Journal editorial, where Rove, a onetime senior advisor to former President George W. Bush, wrote that “Democrats are likelier than not to take the House majority,” citing historical trends and the current slim GOP House majority.
“But it’s far from certain,” he added.
Republicans hold a 220-212 edge, with three vacant seats previously held by Democrats, according to Rove.
“The most consequential battle across the contested arenas in 2026—the Senate, the House, governorships and state legislatures—will likely be the fight for the House,” Rove told readers Wednesday. “It’s the most likely to flip from Republican to Democrat, putting a major crimp in President Trump’s final two years.”
Democrats, Rove noted, will target three GOP incumbents in House districts former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024 – Reps. Don Bacon (R-NE), Mike Lawler (R-NY) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA).
“If the Democrats can pick up these three seats and block any Republican flips, that will get them to 219,” he added. “The Republicans’ problem is turning out Trump supporters, who may not care about the election if he isn’t on the ballot.”
While Democrats face their own internal struggles, Rove argued that they still have “history on their side.”
But, the legendary Republican strategist concluded that “the only certainty” that hovers above it all “is that the outcome will deeply shape how the Trump era unfolds.”
