According to an analysis of a new Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll, "dubious" claims that every Donald Trump indictment results in a boost in his re-election prospects are not borne out by the numbers -- and, in fact, support for the embattled ex-president is in a slow-motion free fall.
Writing for Politico, former federal prosecutor Ankush Khardori stated Trump's key defense against his four indictments is falling flat on its face with voters who aren't part of his rabid MAGA base.
As Khardori explained, any chance the former president has of returning to the Oval Office would require him to appeal to independents and undecideds and a growing number instead believe he belongs in jail.
POLL: Should Trump be allowed to run for office?
"The survey results suggest Americans are taking the cases seriously — particularly the Justice Department’s 2020 election case — and that most people are skeptical of Trump’s claim to be the victim of a legally baseless witch hunt or an elaborate, multi-jurisdictional effort to 'weaponize' law enforcement authorities against him," he wrote.
To make his point, he noted, "Fifty-nine percent of respondents — including nearly two-thirds of independents — said that the Justice Department’s decision to indict Trump in the 2020 election case was based on a fair evaluation of the evidence and the law. At the same time, however, 44 percent of respondents — including 20 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of independents — said that the decision was based on trying to gain a political advantage for Biden.
Khardori added that there is plenty of room for Trump's support to collapse because a substantial number of voters don't fully understand the charges against him.
"Somewhere between roughly one-quarter and one-third of respondents said that they do not understand the charges in the cases well," he explained, before adding, "That could change as the cases proceed through litigation — and, in particular, if one or more cases goes to trial before next November."
He then predicted, "It is reasonable to assume that the media coverage and the facts revealed at any trials would, on balance, be unhelpful to Trump as a political matter, even if he manages to avoid convictions. Criminal defendants generally do not come out looking better at the end of highly publicized trials, even if they get off at the end of the day."
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