According to a long-time Republican pollster, Republicans have a voter problem that is far and above worse than reeling back MAGA voters as Donald Trump’s influence wanes.
In an opinion piece for the New York Times, conservative Kristen Soltis Anderson warned the GOP leadership that, what she has dubbed “normie” Republicans, are fed up with where the party has gone under Trump and that “ought to be a powerful alarm bell for Republican candidates looking to win the 2026 elections.”
"It's with this group that the G.O.P.'s most immediate political challenge really lies," Anderson wrote.
While Trump's most devoted supporters continue to back him, a significant portion of the broader Republican coalition has soured on his leadership. These voters don't primarily identify as Trump supporters and have grown increasingly disaffected with the direction of the country under his administration, she explained.
"They generally think his combative posts on Truth Social are harmful to the Republican cause. Most of them don't consider themselves part of the MAGA movement," Anderson explained.
The data, she notes, paints a troubling picture for Republicans heading into November. Since last year, the percentage of Republicans who felt very favorably toward Trump has fallen by 10 points. Only 44 percent of Republicans strongly approve of his handling of the economy.
Meanwhile, the number of Republicans who identify as party supporters rather than Trump supporters has risen substantially, with Soltis Anderson pointing out the "enthusiasm gap" is particularly alarming. While 62 percent of Trump-first Republicans describe themselves as extremely motivated to vote, less than half — just 49 percent — of party-first Republicans say the same.
This matters enormously because Democratic voters are signaling unprecedented enthusiasm, telling pollsters they will "walk across hot coals to reach the poll," she wrote.
Party-first Republicans are also deeply pessimistic on key issues, her data demonstrates. Only 29 percent strongly approve of Trump's economic stewardship, and less than half believe the economy is improving. They are equally skeptical about the administration's handling of health care, foreign affairs, and democracy itself, adding that, on the Iran war specifically, only around one-third of these Republicans strongly support U.S. military operations.
"Democratic voters clearly feel that the stakes are sky-high in this election. Mr. Trump's most loyal supporters do, too. Many normie Republicans aren't so sure," Anderson elaborated, "If they decide to stay home in November, it will probably spell electoral disaster for the G.O.P."
