President Donald Trump’s sinking approval numbers are a warning sign that cracks are forming well beyond his MAGA base, according to Sarah Longwell, the longtime Republican strategist and publisher of The Bulwark.
In a conversation on The Bulwark’s podcast out Friday, Longwell laid out a grim picture for Trump, pointing to a series of polls she described as “lousy” showing the MAGA leader stuck near historic lows.
“Donald Trump's polling is low these days,” Longwell said. “Trump's been at a low watermark for months.”
The New York Times last measured Trump at 44% approval in September, while Gallup has him polling at 36% for two consecutive months, Longwell told listeners. Nate Silver’s polling average puts Trump at 42%, with no reading above 43% since October, she added.
“This is in an environment where he's obviously getting crushed,” Longwell said, calling the numbers "a bit of a bright spot at least for me emotionally."
Longwell and Bulwark editor Andrew Egger also highlighted fresh polling fallout from Trump’s unilateral intervention in Venezuela. A Washington Post survey found that 63% of Americans believe the president should have sought Congressional approval, while just 37% approved of his acting alone. Only 24% supported the U.S. taking control of Venezuela’s government, with nearly half opposing the idea outright, Longwell added.
“It's nice that a majority of Americans still believe in congressional approval,” the Republican pollster said Friday. “It'd be great if the administration did.”
Egger argued that while Trump can still pull together his core of supporters, his recent moves in Venezuela aren’t winning over young men, independents, or swing voters he needs to avoid major GOP losses.
“The problem is that that does not gain him any ground with these other people, these other constituencies that he actually really does need electorally if he's going to going to avoid a major shellacking this year and in 2028,” Egger told listeners.
Longwell added: “Health care costs are going up, prices are not coming down, [and] Trump is still insisting that his tariffs are somehow making us rich and businesses do not feel this way.”
“But your point about it can get worse, I think that absent some big shift, these things compound over time,” she concluded.
