Donald Trump's dependence on under-educated voters to carry him to victory in the upcoming Republican primaries that will determine the GOP's 2024 presidential nominee may not be enough to get him to the November 2024 general election.
That is the opinion of Washington Post political analyst Aaron Blake based on both changing demographics and the rise of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as the former president's potential chief rival.
As Blake points out, Trump has boasted about his popularity with the "poorly educated," claiming in 2016, "We won with poorly educated. I love the poorly educated,” and he was not wrong about them carrying him to victory.
But that was then and this is now, and with DeSantis possibly jumping into the race, more conservative-leaning college-educated voters may join the fray, giving him a boost over the former president.
"The education gap is looking even bigger ahead of the 2024 primaries. Indeed, it might be the story of a prospective matchup between Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)," Blake wrote. "A series of recent polls suggest there might be no bigger difference between support for Trump and support for DeSantis than education (and, relatedly, income). College-educated voters are significantly more favorable to DeSantis personally, and they favor him by wide margins in head-to-head matchups."
Reporting that "recent polls in California and New Hampshire also show the steady and sharp decline in Trump’s support as you increase education level," Blake added, "it’s also true that people are much more likely to vote as their education level increases — meaning those voters are overrepresented in primaries. In many states in 2016, a slight majority of GOP primary voters had either a college degree or did postgraduate work."
"If those voters choose DeSantis (or anyone else) over Trump by such large margins, Trump’s math becomes much more difficult," he summed up.
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