Donald Trump went from being one of the unlikeliest of American presidents to having a firm grip on the Republican Party, its leadership, and its most extreme members despite his long history of failure at the ballot box in regards to his handpicked candidates.
The GOP will come to regret those failures when Trump loses in 2024, according to conservative columnist Reed Galen, in "what is likely to be a devastating electoral defeat."
"Trump’s erratic behavior, anti-democratic rhetoric, and threats against his opponents will contribute to his loss in November’s presidential election," writes Galen. "But it is America’s demographic makeup that will ultimately send Trump into permanent retirement. The old wisdom that 'demographics is destiny' – coined by the French philosopher Auguste Comte – may well be more relevant to the outcome than it has been to any previous presidential election."
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Galen says that the Republican Party has become "older, whiter, more male, and more extreme" since Trump entered politics in 2016, and it's also smaller. When it comes to Party's attempts to attract moderates and independents, Trump's unwillingness go against his base makes that endeavor even more impossible, Galen writes, adding that the problem is compounded by Republicans being "on the wrong side of every major issue facing the American people."
Republicans had another option in Nikki Haley, and since she dropped out of the race and declared that she will not endorse Trump if he's the nominee, many supporters are likely either to stay home or to vote for Biden.
"Trump lost the 2020 election, and then incited an insurrection. Since then, he has moderated neither his rhetoric nor his behavior; on the contrary, he has become more extreme," writes Galen. "If this depresses Republican voter turnout even marginally, Trump is in for a major defeat. There simply aren’t enough American voters willing to put him back in the White House."
Read the full op-ed over at Project Syndicate.
