Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio's apprehension of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, while leaving his political apparatus intact, may undermine efforts to achieve the "regime change" the White House has reportedly sought.
In a New York Times column, former Trump administration national security advisor John Bolton praised Maduro's removal but criticized the lack of planning for what follows. He noted the administration's characteristic "make-it-up-as-you-go-along style" has resulted in minimal coordination with opposition leaders capable of leading Venezuela.
Bolton wrote, "Whatever Mr. Trump and Mr. Rubio meant, allowing the remnants of Mr. Maduro's regime (a 'deep state' if ever there was one) to retain authority, even temporarily, is a potentially catastrophic mistake."
Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello Rondón have already begun consolidating power and are unlikely to comply with Trump administration directives, Bolton predicted.
Bolton suggested Trump declared victory prematurely, by stating that threatened "second wave" military operations are no longer necessary. Bolton warned that this approach enables regime entrenchment. "Every passing day enables the regime to entrench itself further, as evidence of emerging widespread repression, including renewed threats by the colectivos against Venezuela's civilians, hoping to intimidate them into inaction," he wrote.
Bolton concluded that Trump's strategy has created a strategic disadvantage: "Under his present approach, Mr. Trump has put himself in a box. Despite the availability of overwhelming coercive military force, he is preemptively surrendering to Mr. Maduro's cronies by allowing them to remain in power. By helping his adversaries up off the floor, Mr. Trump is complicating the dilemmas faced after all regime changes."
