‘Flashing red warning sign’: Morning Joe analyst speculates on what Trump campaign spending reveals
Donald Trump removes his hat to show that his hair is real during a political rally at Ladd-Peebles Stadium on August 21, 2015 in Mobile, Alabama (AFP Photo/Mark Wallheiser)

President Donald Trump is pouring campaign funds into battleground states he won in 2016, and MSNBC's John Heilemann said that should be a "flashing red warning sign" for his re-election chances.

The "Morning Joe" contributor told host Joe Scarborough that recent indicators show the president is concerned about losing support from his base, which he said was dangerous position for an incumbent.

"Think about the 'Obamagate' thing, Joe, all the stuff you're talking about," Heilemann said. "We talked earlier about the notion of elections, especially with incumbents, won or lost in the spring of the election year, not the fall. You're Donald Trump -- what's the Obamagate thing? About in all of these conspiracy theories, purely about your base, right? All base reinforcements, not about expanding your vote."

"Axiomatically, if you're an incumbent president in the spring of the election year and you're in trouble worried about your base, as opposed to having your base locked down and trying to expand your vote, you're in trouble," he added.

The Trump campaign purchased TV spots for negative ads against Joe Biden last week, and Heilemann said the markets they chose were revealing.

"Where he's on the air last week, was for the sixth core battleground states, right?" Heilemann said. "Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan -- those are the six we know both sides will fight for, and then they're on in Iowa, right? The seventh state, so in the spring of Donald Trump's re-election, he's putting money into a state he won by nine points in 2016. That's a dangerous time for the Trump team and then you look at those battleground states. The markets on the air -- Grand Rapids, Michigan, in the Pittsburgh suburbs, in the panhandle of Florida."

"Joe, you tell me what it means for Donald Trump in May that he needs to reinforce, shore up his base in the panhandle of Florida in may of 2020?" he added. "That is a flashing red warning sign, not just they're in trouble, but know they're in trouble."