Months before the 2022 midterms, a clue as to whether Donald Trump has a political future as a "kingmaker" will be put to the test as Republican voters decide if they want to embrace candidates whom he has endorsed -- or move on and leave him in the past.
With key primaries kicking off this week, the month of May will be crucial to Trump's political viability if some of his riskier choices for office fail to make the cut that would allow them to be on November's ballot.
According to a report from Politico's David Siders, one Trump advisor is privately admitting that May is not shaping up to be a month of unrivaled success for the former president if current polling is to be believed.
The first test for Trump comes on Tuesday of this week as his surprise choice to be the GOP nominee representing Ohio in the Senate, J.D. Vance, faces his first test before the voters.
Although Vance has leapfrogged the field after Trump's controversial endorsement, Politico is reporting that the rest of the month looks like a minefield for Trump.
"In a four-week stretch of primaries running from Nebraska and West Virginia to Idaho, Pennsylvania and Georgia, Trump-endorsed candidates are slogging through difficult races where the former president’s blessing hasn’t proved to be the rocket fuel some expected. In a few cases, his preferred candidates are running far behind," Siders wrote before noting that Trump himself was rejected by the voters in 2020 and Republicans lost control of the Senate and House on his watch.
That has Trumpworld nervous and conservative activists looking on anxiously.
According to GOP strategist John Thomas, a series of losses could expose Trump's diminishing influence over Republican Party.
“It’ll be a blow to his perceived power,” he explained. “He doesn’t single-handedly control the electorate unless he’s on the ballot. Is he still a very, very popular figure in the Republican Party? Absolutely, undeniably. But does he have the influence and weight in Republican primaries to be the decisive kingmaker? … Not definitively.”
One Trump advisor conceded as much, telling Siders, "The president could have a couple of ugly nights.”
According to one GOP pollster, the results of the Georgia Republican primary, where Trump has expended so much political capital, looks like it will deliver a key blow to his reputation.
“Georgia’s the big one,” Whit Ayres stated. “Trump took on an incumbent Republican governor and recruited a recent incumbent Republican senator to challenge him. That is the biggest of the challenges where Trump has tried to force his will.”
He then added, "If he’s able to take out an incumbent Republican governor, that’s a huge statement of his influence. But if he’s unable to take out an incumbent Republican governor with a recent incumbent senator, it’s a huge statement of his lack of influence on Republican voters.”
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