According to CNN polling analyst Harry Enten, Donald Trump is maintaining a healthy lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in polling for the 2024 Republican party presidential nomination - and then pointed to what could be a problem for the Florida governor.
Based on a survey of polling from CNN's own polls and those of Quinnipiac University, the CNN analyst notes that the former president is maintaining a double-digit lead over the DeSantis who has yet to announce his own bid, then added Trump is getting a "surprising" boost from voters of color.
According to Enten, "what may surprise is how Trump is ahead. An average of CNN/SSRS and Quinnipiac University polls released this week reveals that Trump’s lead may, in large part, be because of his clear edge among potential Republican primary voters of color. Trump was up an average of 55% to 26% over DeSantis among Republican (and Republican leaning independent) voters of color in an average of the two polls."
Admitting that the sample of voters is small, the CNN analyst claimed it is a curious show of support based upon the popular perception that the former president is a racist.
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"I noted in 2019 that more Americans described Trump as racist than the percentage of Americans who said that about segregationist and presidential candidate George Wallace in 1968. But Trump’s overperformance with Republican voters of color makes sense in another way. The Republican primary race right down is breaking down along class lines just like it did during the 2016 primary."
"Trump doing better among Republican voters of color now is after he dramatically improved among all voters of color during the 2020 general election. While he still lost among them in 2020 by 45 points to Joe Biden in exit poll data, this was down from his 53-point loss in the 2016 election to Hillary Clinton. (Other data shows a similar improvement for Trump.)
Trump’s improvement with voters of color occurred even as his margin among White voters declined between 2020 and 2016," he wrote. "In fact, Trump probably would have won the 2020 election had he had slightly less slippage among White voters between 2016 and 2020."
You can read more of his analysis here.
