On CNN Monday, longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who was forecasting a GOP House majority of up to 230 seats and Republican control of the Senate, explained how he and many other analysts had ended up misreading the electorate — and why voters came out in such numbers to reject former President Donald Trump's influence over the Republican Party.
As of press time, Republicans are likely to win a House majority, but with only net single-digit gains. Meanwhile, Democrats have won a bare majority of 50 seats in the Senate, with a potential 51st in the Georgia Senate runoff next month, with Democratic Sen. Rev. Raphael Warnock fighting to keep his seat.
"How did so many people, including you, get it so wrong?" asked anchor Don Lemon. "As I said in the beginning there, we tend to over-index — we've been doing it since 2016 — over-indexing the MAGA part of the electorate."
"There's a fear they did not include enough Republicans in their samples," said Luntz. "Because we knew from 2016, 2018, and 2020, that Trump voters tended not to respond to pollsters because they thought the results would be used against them. There's an effort to, as you say, over-index, that's number one. Number two, people came to the polls and decided enough is enough. About 8 percent comes in undecided and has to decide at that moment. They want to vote one way and end up voting the other."
"Since you mentioned election voters, I want to get to this," said Lemon. "A presidential adviser said ... the streets were not saying what the polls were saying, and that young people were coming out."
"That's a given," said Luntz. "Yeah, the young people were voting but they still vote on a smaller percentage than their parents and a tiny percentage compared to their grandparents. So to me, I want to look forward. I want to take where we stand right now and focus on what it means over the next few weeks and next few months. Everybody is rehashing the past. And that's why people have had enough of Donald Trump. He wasn't rehashing last week, he was rehashing what happened two years ago. We need to look forward. That's what the American people are asking of all of us. It's done, we voted, we have a really, really split government right now. Now let's move forward and see if we can get something done."
Watch the video below or at this link.
Here's why 'everyone has had enough of Donald Trump': former GOP pollster Frank Luntz www.youtube.com