The battle to win the Republican Party's 2024 presidential nomination will likely come down to who can capture the hearts and minds of what one political analyst has defined as members of the "beer track."
In a column for CNN, longtime political observer Ronald Brownstein suggested that Donald Trump's victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 was powered by motivating under-educated voters to the polls.
That dynamic will now be put into play as Trump attempts to lock up his third nomination, and his opponents try to siphon off some of those voters with appeals to hot-button cultural issues – that have little to do with the normal pocketbook issues that are in play in national elections.
According to Brownstein, one of the ways voters can be looked at is how they vote depending on their educational backgrounds.
"Analysts have often described such an educational divide among primary voters as the wine track (centered on college-educated voters) and the beer track (revolving around those without degrees). Over the years, it’s been a much more consistent feature in Democratic than Republican presidential primaries," he explained.
"But the wine track/beer track divide emerged as the defining characteristic of the 2016 GOP race, when Trump’s extraordinary success at attracting Republicans without a college degree allowed him to overcome sustained resistance from the voters with one."
As he notes, that divide is why Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is throwing red meat to far-right voters in his efforts to set up a run against Donald Trump for the GOP presidential nod.
"On paper, none of the leading candidates other than DeSantis himself seems particularly well positioned to threaten Trump’s hold on the non-college Republicans who have long been the most receptive audience for his blustery and belligerent messaging. By contrast, most of the current and potential field – including former Governors Nikki Haley and Chris Christie; current Governors Chris Sununu of New Hampshire and Glenn Youngkin of Virginia; former Vice President Mike Pence; and Sen. Tim Scott – appear better suited to attract the white-collar Republicans who have always been the most skeptical of Trump," he suggested.
He then added, "That could create a situation in which there’s too little competition to Trump for voters on the 'beer track' and too many options splintering the voters resistant to him on the 'wine track.' That was the dynamic that allowed Trump to capture the nomination in 2016 even though nearly two-thirds of college-educated Republicans opposed him through the primaries, according to exit polls, and he didn’t reach 50% of the total vote in any state until the race was essentially decided."
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