Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's departure from the Democratic Party puts potential primary challengers in a difficult position.
The newly minted Arizona independent publicly presented her move as a reaction to partisanship and a reflection of her state's voters, but most political observers agree she wants to avoid a primary challenge and is basically daring Democrats to call her bluff, reported The Daily Beast.
“Her party switch is an electoral hand grenade, and she just pulled the pin," said one Arizona Democratic operative.
Sinema needs only 43,00 signatures to appear on the November 2024 ballot, and Democrats have indicated they win run someone against her -- even at the risk of splitting the vote and allowing a Republican to sneak through.
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“I don’t think a three-way race is going to hurt the Democrat, frankly,” said former state lawmaker Chris Herstam, a former Sinema ally.
Sinema has a dismal 81-percent disapproval rating among the state's Democrats, and actually has a higher approval rating with Republicans, and Herstam believes the independent senator might actually peel off moderate GOP votes from a MAGA-style candidate.
“If [Senate majority leader Chuck] Schumer has a brain, he will totally stay out of this Senate race,” Herstam said. “He needs to keep Sinema voting with them, so he can be kind to her and say nice things, but just stay out, Chuck, and let it play out.”
There's no guarantee that she could even get enough signatures to appear on the ballot, because she would have to collect far more than 43,000 signatures given the typical rejection rate for political petitions.
“It is unprecedented to secure the amount of signatures she’d need to appear on the ballot,” said Matt Grodsky, a former communications director for the state Democratic Party. “She’s got money and time to do it, sure, but that’s a hell of a gamble.”
Some activists who helped Sinema first get elected in 2018 say she won't be able to count on any constituency if she runs again.
“The closer you get to the ground in Arizona, the more white-hot the fury is from people who put enormous amounts of time into helping get her elected in 2018,” said Leah Greenberg, co-founder of the liberal group Indivisible. “This is a final stage in a betrayal that’s been ongoing for a long time.”
