According to a military expert attached to the French Ministry for the Armed Forces, Vladimir Putin may succeed in taking over Ukraine but he has lost the long-term war and could be ripe to be deposed after his latest military adventure.
In an essay for War on the Rocks, flagged by the Bulkwark's Jonathan Last, Jean-Baptiste Jeangene Vilmer, a director of the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM), made the case that Putin made a strategic mistake invading Ukraine and has already lost in some ways.
According to Vilmer, "No matter how the war in Ukraine plays out, Putin loses. Even if Russian forces prevail on the ground and in the air, he loses. Even if he takes Kyiv tomorrow, he loses. Russia lacks the forces (and perhaps the will) to occupy Ukraine in the face of a restive civil society and guerrilla movement. And that would be on top of having already reinforced NATO, awakened Europe, isolated his country, ruined its economy, and alienated many Russians, including his 'friends.'"
The military expert added, that the world itself will likely suffer too, but that there are five factors that do not bode well for the Russian president.
"It might seem presumptuous in the first week of a war to predict its outcome and second-order effects for Ukraine, Russia, and the West, but it seems Putin’s defeat is the likely product of five factors: the heavy price of a prospective military victory, the quagmire of an occupation, the strengthening of NATO and European defense, the international isolation of Russia, and the internal contestation which may lead to Putin’s fall," he wrote before cautioning. " So Putin lost, but it does not mean we win."
Vilmer also added that Putin being deposed is not out of the question as the Russian public becomes more enraged about the invasion and Putin's fellow oligarchs look at the damage he has done.
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"The logical conclusion of all this is that the resentment and hostility and fear that Putin generates within the Russian elite constitutes a real risk for his maintenance in power in the coming weeks, months, and years," he explained. "The probability of a palace coup or an oligarchic revolt is substantial. There may come a point where it appears to the population and the economic, military, and security elite, including within the Kremlin, that the only way to save Russia is to get rid of Putin."
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