President Donald Trump's endorsement of Republican Ken Paxton on Tuesday could backfire in the Texas Senate primary race — putting Democrat Rep. James Talarico in the lead for the first time, according to a Kalshi Prediction Market report.
Kalshi has signaled that the president's move could flip the ruby-red Senate seat to blue.
"The Trump endorsement likely carries clear, quantifiable weight in Paxton's chances, as shown by the absurd 40% rise in odds of Paxton's chances to win the nomination," Kalshi reported.
"Likely as a result, traders in the market on the general election for the open Senate seat in Texas have perceived this as good news for James Talarico, who is now favored for the first time ever," according to Kalshi.
If elected, Talarico would be the first Democrat to hold a Senate seat in Texas since 1993.
He has served in the Texas House of Representatives since 2019, representing House District 50 in the Austin area. His work has focused on progressive advocacy on education funding, healthcare access and social justice issues within the Texas legislature.
