Many Republicans — particularly those who are either running for president or considering running for president — are acting like it's a done deal Trump will not be the nominee in 2024. But in fact the data show that is not only possible but still the most likely scenario, reported conservative Axios analyst Josh Kraushaar on Tuesday.
"Trump's rivals and critics underestimated him in 2016, often treating him as a sideshow rather than a front-runner. They risk repeating that mistake," reported Kraushaar. "Many of those either running for the GOP nomination or considering a run are spending more time focused on dinging Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis than Trump, the actual frontrunner."
"New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a potential 2024 presidential candidate, declared on 'Meet the Press' last week that Trump's 'not going to be the nominee, that's just not going to happen,'" said the report. "Days later, an Emerson poll in the state found Trump leading DeSantis — widely seen as Trump's chief GOP competition — by 41 points. Former House Speaker Paul Ryan told the New York Times this week: 'I don’t think Trump is going to get the nomination. The ace in the hole reason is that he’s unelectable. Even most of MAGA knows this.'"
This comes in spite of the fact that at the most recent Conservative Political Action Conference — where Republican base supporters and activists gathered amid a cloud of scandal around the event's director — Trump easily won the straw poll.
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DeSantis has not yet declared a run for president, though he is making clear preparations to do so and has the backing of a number of key Republican megadonors. One candidate who has formally declared is former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who has indirectly jabbed at Trump by insinuating he is too old for the office.
Haley was also in attendance at CPAC, but performed dismally in the straw poll and was greeted at her speech with chants for Trump.
