According to DC insiders, the race to assume the MAGA crown from Donald Trump as the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nomination is a two-horse race between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
However, as longtime GOP campaign strategist Rick Wilson wrote on Monday, there is a wild card in the mix who not only could use Donald Trump’s outsider playbook from 2016, but already has a base to lean upon that could elevate him in the early primaries and clear the field: former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.
Wilson argues that Carlson is employing a carefully calculated strategy: publicly maintaining friendship with Vance while subtly distancing himself from the administration through strategic criticism on Iran, Israel, tariffs, and cabinet appointments. "That smells…tactical," Wilson wrote.
Unlike Vance, who will inherit the baggage of Trump's presidency, Carlson possesses the media mastery and communication skills that made Trump formidable in 2016. "He has lived and breathed media and politics his entire life," Wilson explained. "His father ran the Voice of America. He has been a magazine writer, a cable host on three networks, a podcast operator, and a wildly successful streaming experiment."
Carlson's credentials dwarf those of other potential candidates. While Ron DeSantis "lacks charisma," Nikki Haley has no constituency, and Ted Cruz remains unpopular, Carlson commands massive audiences across multiple platforms — something no other GOP figure can match, Wilson maintained.
"What Trump had was thirty years of feral understanding of how cameras work, how attention works, and how to be the loudest voice in any room without seeming to try," Wilson wrote. "Tucker is that, plus decades in cable, including, for a time, the highest-rated show in cable news history, plus a post-Fox second act on streaming and Twitter that pulls numbers no other GOP figure can touch."
Wilson sketched out a plausible path to victory that mirrors Trump's 2016 trajectory. Iowa, with its evangelical-populist crossover and anti-establishment sentiment, is built for Carlson's anti-Wall Street, anti-war message. Farmers tired of being collateral damage in trade wars would be receptive to his platform.
According to the GOP campaign strategist, Carlson doesn't need to win Iowa — a strong second place finish, beating the establishment-anointed candidate, presumably Vance or Rubio, would suffice. Then Elon Musk could amplify his message through the Twitter algorithm, just as he did for Trump.
Then, in New Hampshire, where independents can pull Republican ballots and his mix of isolationism and anti-establishment populism would resonate, Carlson could secure a victory. Two top-two finishes would transform the dynamic entirely
"Now the dynamic flips," Wilson wrote. "He walks into South Carolina with two top-two finishes, and South Carolina, for all the talk about it being Trump country, is fundamentally a state that votes for the perceived winner. The MAGA base, watching him beat the establishment twice, decides he is the heir."
"This is not a fantasy. This is the same script Trump ran in 2016, with one decisive upgrade: Tucker Carlson, for all his vile beliefs, is not stupid," Wilson concluded. "But sure, laugh him off. It worked out so well with Trump."
