With the November midterms looming and Republican hopes of taking control of both chambers of Congress slipping away, GOP campaign consultants are scrambling because their traditional appeals to voters are now falling flat and they're not sure what to do about it.
According to a report from Politico's David Siders, Republicans have normally banked on culture war issues to drive the base to the polls but in 2022 "God, guns and gays" isn't playing well with voters in large part because the electorate and attitudes on those three hot-button issues have evolved.
As Siders wrote, "For the first time in years, Republican and Democratic political professionals are preparing for a general election campaign in which Democrats — not Republicans — may be winning the culture wars, a wholesale reversal of the traditional political landscape that is poised to reshape the midterms and the run-up to 2024."
Michael Brodkorb, a former deputy chair of the Minnesota Republican Party, cut right to the chase and lamented, "The environment is upside down. The intensity has been reversed.”
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One topic that has Republicans fearful of what will happen on election day is the overturning of Roe v. Wade, something that was near and dear to the hearts of evangelicals who make up a large portion of the GOP base.
That Supreme Court ruling has placated the religious right but has also thrown election predictions into chaos.
"It isn’t just abortion," Siders wrote. "Less than 20 years after conservatives used ballot measures against same-sex marriage to boost voter turnout in 11 states, public sentiment has shifted on the issue so dramatically that Democrats are poised to force a vote on legislation to protect same-sex marriage to try to damage Republican candidates. Following the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, Democrats from Georgia and Wisconsin to Illinois and California are running ads supporting gun restrictions, once viewed as a liability for the left, while openly engaging Republicans on crime."
According to Third Ways Matt Bennett, "The story is that things that used to be very dangerous for Democrats – guns and abortion – are now very good for Democrats. Those kind of culture issues – [same-sex] marriage, abortion and guns – have flipped. The political impact of them [has] flipped.”
"It was only a year ago that the cultural flashpoints in American politics appeared much more favorable to the GOP, with Republicans driving a flurry of news cycles on mask mandates, critical race theory, transgender student-athletes and the perceived excesses of social media and big tech," Siders wrote. "For Republicans, the result has been a general election reset in which the GOP is refocusing squarely on inflation and on Biden, whose low job approval ratings remain a drag on the Democratic Party. Republicans are still widely expected to take the House in November, though likely by narrower margins than once expected. But if they do win the House it will likely be those kitchen-table issues, not the culture wars, that put them over the top."
Democratic strategist Jon Reinish said the flip in the culture wars could be a glimpse of things to come for the 2024 presidential election.
“Democrats are so afraid of their own shadows, naturally. But I think that if it works this time, this could give permission to not be afraid," he predicted.
You can read more here.
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