The Wyoming Republican has fallen badly behind her leading rival Harriet Hagerman by a 56-28 split, according to a recent survey conducted by a pollster who works for Donald Trump, but Republican insiders told NBC News that matches others conducted in the state.
“I think the race is kind of getting baked in here against Cheney,” said GOP consultant Bill Cubin. “It wouldn’t be so much that she’s participating in the Jan. 6 Committee — and yes a lot of Republicans are uncomfortable with that — but there’s this feeling she’s not really representing Wyoming anymore.”
Cheney's campaign insists the lawmaker returns home often, but she has drawn powerful enemies in Trump, House minority leader Kevin McCarthy and the conservative Club for Growth, and pollster Tony Fabrizio -- who conducted the recent survey for Hagerman and also works with the former president -- doesn't give her much chance of coming back.
“Not only is Cheney getting creamed in the ballot, but Wyoming [Republican primary voters] are clear that there is no room for her to get back into this race,” Fabrizio wrote in a memo obtained by NBC News. “A huge 71% majority say they will vote against her, including 66% who will definitely vote against Cheney no matter who she runs against. With only 26% saying they will definitely or probably vote for Cheney, she has hit her ceiling on the ballot.”