Donald Trump's decision to not participate in the first Republican Party presidential debate may seem to him to be a masterstroke, but one analyst is claiming the historical record may prove him wrong.
On Friday it was reported that the former president will skip the debate and instead have a one-on-one with fired former Fox News personality Tucker Carlson in an effort to deprive his rivals of the chance to share the stage with him.
As Politico's Steve Shepard wrote, that decision could blow up in Trump's face because fortunes can be made and lost at the debates and a standout performance -- with Trump AWOL -- could boost one candidate and make them a serious threat to the former president.
According to the analyst, Trump's gambit "probably won't work."
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"As presidential primaries have become more national in scope, debates have arguably been all that’s really mattered in the run-up to the early states. Candidates like Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Ben Carson and Pete Buttigieg surged in the polls after strong showings," Shepard wrote.
As he explained, "The proof is in the numbers."
"Much of the movement in recent primary fights has been marked in time by the nationally televised debates. Candidates sink or swim based on their debate performances — and the first debate has often been the catalyst for the first real changes in those races," he explained. "Even if Trump doesn’t show, the debates will still command larger audiences than anything else the candidates will do over the next six months."
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He then noted that the other candidates should view the former president's absence as an opportunity to take advantage of either turning around their fortunes or breaking away from the pack as those who falter call it quits if their post-debate polling numbers plummet.
"Yes, Trump has a huge lead in the national polling at this stage — far larger than any of the six primaries we examine below — and a slightly-smaller-but-still-commanding advantage in the early states. But if he’s serious about skipping the debate, he risks being upstaged," he predicted.
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