Did anyone do a damned thing to damage Trump or help themselves?
On the day before Donald Trump, who's leading the GOP primary field by an average of 41 points in the polls, is expected to surrender to Georgia authorities, eight of his competitors took to the debate stage to kick off what promises to be a long and painful election cycle.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who was leading Trump in some polls as recently as February and has since crashed spectacularly as voters got to know him better, and “anti-woke” entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy — whose surprising rise to third place in the crowded field has been fueled by effusive coverage in the conservative press and who may prove to be the Andrew Yang of the 2024 cycle — came into the debate vying for sole possession of second place among GOP primary voters.
They did so in the hope that as Trump's indictments work their way through the courts, the Republican base, which currently believes that President Joe Biden is so weak that electability shouldn't factor into their choice of a nominee, will get skittish and seek an alternative.
The task for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina and others polling in the single digits was to show that they have good reason to remain in the race.
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While Trump was physically absent, his disdain for debate rules was present as Fox News moderators Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum struggled from the onset to control the proceedings. Candidates ignored their time limits and shouted over one another. There were frequent interruptions from the audience.
When Baier asked the candidates how they would deter China, only one — North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, attempted an actual answer. Scott offered a rambling detour about finishing Trump's wall on the Southern border. Baier had described China as our nation’s top national security threat, but quickly abandoned any effort to get the question answered.
At one point, an exasperated Haley said, “y’all have to get control of this debate.”
But it was a combative Ramaswamy bickering with the other candidates that will likely come to define the first debate.
Early on, when asked if he believes human-caused climate change is real, he blasted his opponents’ super PAC support and replied, “as the only candidate on this stage who isn't bought and paid for, I can say the truth: the climate change agenda is a hoax.” Neither the moderators nor Ramaswamy’s opponents challenged him on the fact that Ramaswamy enjoys the support of a super PAC, which is bankrolled in part by a coal outfit. (And in an entertaining flub, Baier then asked Scott if he was “bought and paid for” and the senator responded, “absolutely.”)
Ramaswamy's dig led former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to call Ramaswamy “a guy who sounds like ChatGPT” and compare him to Obama. But it was former Vice President Mike Pence who spent much of the evening squabbling with the 38-year-old businessman. At one point, Pence said derisively, "Let me explain it to you, Vivek. I'll go slower this time. Joe Biden has weakened this country at home and abroad. Now is not the time for on-the-job training. We don't need to bring in a rookie."
According to NBC News, Ramaswamy delivered the most attacks on his fellow candidates — 16 — and was also the target of the most return fire, with 11. During the commercial breaks, a panel of Fox News analysts rated his performance as “polarizing,” with one commenting that she had come into the night without an opinion on the brash upstart but had come to dislike him during the chaotic proceedings.
One surprise on Wednesday was the near absence of DeSantis. He held back for most of the night (and never once uttered the word “woke”). That might be a decent strategy if he wasn't trying to arrest a dramatic decline in support over the past few months.
A strategy memo laid out by a strategist with DeSantis's super PAC last week and obtained by The New York Times urged the Florida governor to “Attack Joe Biden and the media 3-5 times... State [his] positive vision 2-3 times... hammer Vivek Ramaswamy [and] Defend Donald Trump in absentia in response to a Chris Christie attack.”
DeSantis managed to get in two hits on Biden and two on the media, but he left Pence, Haley and others to hammer Ramaswamy. His attempts to offer a “positive vision” were lackluster at best.
On abortion, an issue that's energized Democrats and left Republicans struggling for a coherent response, the Biden campaign was probably happy that all but one of the candidates pledged that they'd sign a 15-week national abortion ban into law if elected.
Haley, the lone woman among the eight debating candidates, said that such a pledge was unrealistic because it would require 60 votes in the Senate to get to her desk. But only Burgum, whose voice many voters were hearing for the first time ever on Wednesday, argued that the issue should be left up to the states.
While aid to Ukraine has divided the GOP base, only Ramaswamy came out forcefully against it, saying, “we should use those same military resources to prevent the invasion across our southern border.”
That drew a sharp rebuke from Haley. In one of the sharpest exchanges of the evening, she shouted over Ramaswamy that he has no foreign policy experience “and it shows.” DeSantis, who had previously taken heat for referring to Russia's expanded war against Ukraine as a “territorial dispute,” said that he didn't oppose more aid outright but insisted that European countries need to contribute their fair share. Haley, a former ambassador to the United Nations under Trump, responded that only 3.5 percent of our defense budget had gone to Ukraine and noted that 11 European countries had offered more assistance than the U.S. relative to the sizes of their economies.
The pundits may anoint Haley the winner of the evening for coming off as serious and pragmatic, or Ramaswamy for featuring so prominently and elevating his name recognition or DeSantis for not exacerbating his likability problems in any obvious way.
But Trump was the real winner in absentia as he came out of the debate almost completely unscathed. He wasn't even mentioned by name until the 52-minute mark. An hour passed before the moderators posed a question about his massive legal problems and the very real possibility of him being convicted of felonies. When they asked if the candidates would support Trump if he were convicted, only Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said they would not.
While Haley offered that Trump “is the most disliked politician in America,” only Christie, an early Trump supporter turned apostate, was eager to talk about him, saying, “someone's got to stop normalizing this conduct. Whether you believe these charges are right or wrong, this conduct is unbecoming for the president of the United States.” He received a mix of boos and applause.
The other candidates tried their best to navigate the fundamental challenge of this campaign: bucking a front-runner with a commanding lead without alienating the majority of Republican base voters who believe Trump is the best president since Abraham Lincoln. Several dodged the Trump question; Burgum responded that "China loves it when we're talking about the past."
Wednesday night's debate generated some moments that will give the pundits a few days of fodder. But there were no “you're no Jack Kennedy” moments to go viral. Instead, we got Ramaswamy conjuring James Stockdale with a dash of Barack Obama.
Nothing Wednesday night changed the structure of the race. And that should come as no surprise. Given his current incumbent-like lead, if voters are to deny Trump his party's nomination in 2024, it would be the result of a presentation in a courtroom rather than on a debate stage.