Arbour, who teaches political science at John Jay College/City University of New York, notes that Bill Stepien —Trump’s new campaign manager — recently wrote, “There is clear and irrefutable evidence that Joe Biden’s candidacy has a decided lack of enthusiastic support as compared to President Trump.” And Arbour argues that it’s a huge mistake to underestimate Democratic disdain for Trump — even among Democratic voters who don’t consider Biden their dream candidate.
“If one broadens the definition of enthusiasm beyond desire to support your side’s presidential candidate,” Arbour writes, “this argument weakens. Using a more diverse set of evidence, including turnout in primary elections and donations to candidates up and down the ballot, one can find lots of evidence of Democratic enthusiasm for this year’s election.”
Arbour agrees with Stepien that enthusiasm for Trump is high among his supporters and that Democratic voters aren’t nearly as enthusiastic about Biden.
“By that definition — being excited about the choice for president — there is indeed an enthusiasm gap,” Arbour writes. “But if we look at other indicators, we see lots of evidence for enthusiasm among Democrats.”
Biden may not be the ideal choice of Democratic voters, Arbour writes, but in terms of overall enthusiasm, they are fired up — and that enthusiasm is showing itself with everything from “fundraising” to “turnout.”
Arbour observes, “Last week, the Biden campaign announced that it had raised $282 million in the second quarter of 2020 — $16 million more than the Trump campaign…. Democratic fundraising success at the presidential level was matched at the congressional level…. Since June, Democrats have seen big increases in the number of votes cast in presidential primaries in Georgia.”
Another sign of “Democratic enthusiasm,” according to Arbour, is their “dislike for President Trump.” Arbour notes that according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, 90% of Democrats disapprove of Trump — 79% of them strongly.
“It is easy to explain Democratic anger at President Trump,” Arbour notes. “While Republicans feel conflicted between President Trump’s conservative policy achievements and his personal behavior, Democrats feel no such ambivalence. They object to both and see Trump’s election as a worrisome sign of democratic health in our country.”
Arbour concludes his op-ed by emphasizing that Republicans should not underestimate how badly Democrats want to see Trump out of the White House.
“Republicans may take solace in the low levels of enthusiasm that Joe Biden’s voters are recording for Joe Biden, but a look at a broader set of numbers indicates that such sentiments may lead to the wrong conclusion,” Arbour warns Trump supporters. “Democrats seem very enthusiastic about a candidate this fall, but that candidate is Donald Trump. Democratic voters want him out of office, and they are indeed enthusiastic about making that happen.”
