Inside the 11 scenarios that deny Trump the presidency — without him actually losing Election 2024
It’s hard to imagine anything wearing down the bravado of Donald Trump, but will his legal troubles play poorly in a general election, leading him to lose again in November 2024?
Or might the current Republican front runner go out a different way?
At present, Trump stands accused of 91 charges in four felony cases, testing his political death-defying ability.
So far, the primary campaign has been a display of Trump’s political impunity, a place where his mugshot, taken at a Georgia jail, not only made his supporters more resolute, it has become lucrative for merchandising. Jail time? He shrugs it off.
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“He is a tank. He is a boulder. I don't think there is literally anything that can happen to this man that would make him lose because he has such a chokehold on the Republican Party,” said Amani Wells-Onyioha, operations director at Democratic political firm Sole Strategies.
Others consider him vulnerable.
“There's a very real possibility that he gets convicted of one of these and is looking at prison time,” said Nicholas Creel, assistant professor of business law at Georgia College and State University. “When we get to the hypothetical point of him needing to take office, we've got to figure out now, is he actually above the law. The Supreme Court will have to step in."
“There is a very, very real possibility that a Supreme Court majority — probably a five-four ruling — could say you still have to face the music, Mr. President, and if we enter political paralysis, that's because we have chosen that you would be the president in prison,” Creel continued.
Here are 11 other scenarios where Trump fails for a second straight time to get back to the White House — without losing the 2024 general election:
Trump loses the Republican primary on votes
Elaine Kamarck of the Brookings Institution, author of “Primary Politics: Everything you need to know about how America nominates its presidential candidates,” says Trump does not have an insurmountable lead in the primaries — even if he’s enjoying a massive lead today over the likes of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and about a dozen other contenders.
“The polls right now are just sort of baloney,” she said. “If there are any polls you should pay attention to, pay attention to the early-state polls, which show a (slightly) closer race. The national polls are totally meaningless.”
That, she said, is because the primaries are different than any other kind of election in the United States.
“It is a sequence, not one election,” she said. “So, yeah, if the election were held today and we had a national primary, Trump would win. But what happens is something very different.”
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Kamarck said the essential question is who comes in second in the Iowa caucuses and what happens to Trump after that.
“If he shows some weakness and if there is another candidate who people decide to coalesce around, that’s the game,” she said. “[Trump] could very well lose.”
Trump will likely spend a lot of time in court next year, which could distract from campaigning. His federal trial on charges of trying to overturn the 2020 election starts March 4 — a day before Super Tuesday, when 16 states and territories, including California and Texas, will cast primary ballots. Trump has called the timing a “scam.”
John Geer, dean of the college of arts and science and professor of political science and public policy and education at Vanderbilt University, said it's hard to imagine Trump not getting the nomination, especially if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire.
But the indictments could start to take a toll on him.
“If he gets 30, 40 percent of the vote, he'll probably finish first in most primaries, and the way the Republicans allocate delegates means that he'll get the lion's share of delegates, so he'll lock things up pretty early,” Geer said. “He's going to be in pretty good standing, but we’re way ways away from that, and it'll be interesting to watch because this is beginning to pile on in a way that's just not good for him.”
Trump loses the GOP nomination in a floor fight
Kamarck noted that in 2016, “Never Trump” Republicans angled for a Republican National Convention floor fight.
But, she said, the second-place candidate, Ted Cruz, wasn’t strong enough to make that a viable effort and force multiple ballots.
It could be different in 2024, she said.
If Trump goes into the convention with fewer than 50 percent of delegates, Kamarck said, “There’s nothing that keeps that second-place person from taking the third-, fourth- and fifth-place delegates and saying, ’Come with me and let’s win this nomination.’”
James Long, professor of political science at the University of Washington, said Trump supporters might have to ask themselves some tough questions amid the various indictments.
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“Everyone saying they’re going to support Trump is going to have to face the reality that this is going to get worse and worse for him, and they’re going to have to think about whether or not he’s a credible winner in the (general) election,” Long said. “And they’re going to have to decide if they care more about him as a person, or they care more about winning. At some point, you have to cut and run and go with somebody you think can win.”
While some of Trump’s rivals have broken with the imperiled president, other Republican challengers for the GOP nomination continue to shy away from aggressive attacks.
“They're hoping if Trump does get convicted of one or more crimes, that even if he's nominated, he could be removed by the Republican National Committee,” said Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University. “I'm not saying that will happen, but they could be thinking about that, and then any one of them could become the nominee.”
Geer imagined Trump’s revenge.
“A scenario is that if he doesn't get the nomination, he would withhold the support for the nominee and ensure the Democrats win,” Geer said.
Trump flees the country
As George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley wrote, Trump “is one of the most recognized figures in the world. He would have to go to Mars to live incognito. It is facially absurd.”
As outlandish as it may sound, Trump could theoretically find refuge from legal threats in a country that’s not so friendly to the United States — but potentially friendly to Trump.
Think Russia. China. Saudi Arabia. Even — dare one say it — North Korea. Unlike most people in legal peril, Trump has massive amounts of money and the physical means — specifically, his own “Trump Force One” Boeing 757 — to get to a place beyond the reach of special counsel Jack Smith, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis or the U.S. justice system, writ large.
And in addition to the Russias and Chinas of the world, there are dozens of other nations that don’t have extradition treaties with the United States, which makes it extremely difficult for the U.S. law enforcement officials to spirit a wanted man into custody and back to American soil.
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Of course, such a drastic move by Trump would all but guarantee that he could never again return to the United States as a free man.
But Trump has well-established business ties in numerous foreign countries and could ostensibly live like a fugitive king in a welcoming nation.
And in October 2020, days before the election he wouldn’t win, Trump himself floated the idea of becoming an ex-pat: “Could you imagine if I lose? I’m not going to feel so good. Maybe I’ll have to leave the country, I don’t know.”
Said Wells-Onyioha: “If he doesn't want to face charges, I can see him attempting to flee. Trump genuinely feels like the rules don't apply to him, so I think that there's nothing that he won't do. I don't think he wants to face any accountability or any repercussions for any of the things that he's done thus far, so I can see him trying to flee.”
In actuality, it’s much more likely that Trump’s legal team will just try to delay the court proceedings as long as possible, Geer said.
“(Trump) can tie the legal system up for a long time, so that’s what I suspect he'll end up doing,” Geer said.
Trump, however, lost his bid to move the federal trial for trying to overturn the election to 2026. It’s scheduled to start March 4, 2024.
The Georgia trial on state charges of trying to overturn the election starts Oct. 23 for two defendants. The judge denied the prosecutor’s request to have all 19 defendants stand trial together on that date. The prosecutor said separating them would create a “logistical quagmire,” which Trump would likely welcome.
Trump’s federal trial on charges of illegally possessing secret government documents starts May 20.
Trump’s second civil trial for defamation of a woman he sexually abused is scheduled to start Jan. 15, the same day as the Iowa caucuses.
Trump falls gravely ill or dies of natural causes
When Americans discuss age and the presidency, it’s usually about President Joe Biden, the nation’s first octogenarian commander-in-chief who will be 82 years old on Inauguration Day 2025.
But Trump, 77, is not a young man, either. If elected president next year, Trump would become the oldest president in history at the time he took office, surpassing Biden.
The average age of death for a man who’s served as president of the United States is about 72 years old, according to Statista, and only 12 out of the 45 U.S. presidents have lived to celebrate their 80th birthday.
So while the topic itself is grim, even uncouth, the odds of Trump falling gravely ill or dying before Election Day 2024 are not insignificant.
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What would happen next upon either scenario would largely be a function of the point in time Trump stopped running.
If Trump was unable to continue running for president in 2023 or early 2024 — prior to the Republican presidential primaries beginning or shortly thereafter — the long roster of other candidates would simply continue competing for the nomination without him.
Kamarck, however, wrote recently that state election officials are allowed to adjust filing deadlines for new candidates if the frontrunner dies or is incapacitated before, say, January 1, 2024. After that, she said, states could adjust filing deadlines or move back the date of their primary.
If Trump couldn’t continue after winning enough primary votes to become the presumptive 2024 presidential nominee, the nation would almost certainly have to gird for a brokered Republican National Convention, which is scheduled for mid-July in Milwaukee, Wis.
And if Trump officially secured the GOP nomination, but couldn’t stand for election in November 2024, a select group of Republican Party bigwigs would likely convene to choose a replacement — whether that was Trump’s vice presidential running mate, or someone else.
Trump dies from assassination
Even more grim is the specter of assassination, an ever-present specter for presidents and presidential candidates alike.
Four presidents — John F. Kennedy, William McKinley, James Garfield and Abraham Lincoln — died after being shot.
Ronald Reagan, in 1981, could have been the fifth assassinated president but for the quick reactions of law enforcement and medical personnel.
Last month, while attempting to serve a warrant, FBI agents shot and killed a Utah man who had allegedly made “credible” threats against Biden.
High-profile presidential candidates also come under threat. The most notable modern example is that of Robert F. Kennedy, who died in 1968 after being shot at a campaign event. (Kennedy’s son, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is now running against Biden in the Democratic primary, and has publicly stated that he believes his father’s convicted killer isn’t the man who committed the crime.)
Trump, like every past president and many presidential candidates, receives U.S. Secret Service protection and will ostensibly be entitled to such protection even if he’s convicted of a crime and sent to prison or home detention.
Trump takes a plea and agrees to quits the race before Election Day
Scott Galloway made this prediction on the popular podcast Pivot, which he hosts with journalist Kara Swisher:
Trump, Galloway said, "has a very nice life, and his life can be going back to golf and sycophants and having sex with porn stars. … Or he can live under the threat of prison. The [political] momentum he has is real leverage and power. And I think he’s going to cash that leverage and power in for a plea deal that includes no jail time.”
With Trump is facing state charges in Georgia and New York, he wouldn’t be able to escape by pardoning himself as president — something he could attempt to do for the federal-level charges he faces. Therefore, Trump’s calculus may change.
Creel noted Spiro Agnew’s resignation from the vice presidency in 1973 after facing the threat of jail for his corruption while governor of Maryland.
“One of the parts of the agreement was [to] resign, get out of politics forever, and we will not pursue this,” he said. “So with a more rational defendant, that would absolutely be something that's on the table. That's something Jack Smith would be bringing to Trump, but for one, we're not dealing with a particularly rational individual. Two, this scenario is significantly different in that we have state-level charges also facing him. And so because they can't really immunize him against that at the state level, the incentive to take that sort of a deal is greatly diminished.”
Wells-Onyioha said Trump maybe – maybe – would come to the realization that prison, and the potential life-long loss of his freedom, is a real and unpalatable possibility.
“I can see them coming up with some sort of like plea agreement, where in exchange for dropping out of the race, they will let him be on probation or something like that,” she said. “I can see that happening. But even so, I'm not even sure if he would take that deal.”
Trump is removed via the 25th Amendment
The Constitution’s 25th Amendment spells out the succession plan if a president dies or is removed from office, which means the vice president takes over.
If the vice president and his cabinet determine that the president is unable to discharge his duties as president — say, being in prison — Congress will have 48 hours to convene and 21 days to decide if the president is fit to hold office. It can remove him by a two-thirds vote.
“You can even see his cabinet exercising the 25th Amendment, saying, look, you're incapacitated. You're not capable because you're needing to go to prison or are in prison. You're not capable of fulfilling the oath of office, therefore, we're invoking [the] 25th Amendment and removing you from office that way, and so you would see whoever his vice president elect is [at] that point stepping up,” Creel said.
If Trump wins the 2024 election, the Supreme Court will ultimately need to decide if a sitting president is immune from state-level prosecution in Georgia and New York, and the Court might rule against his ability to serve as president.
“Functionally this would mean Trump is the legitimate president but would still be forced to carry out a sentence in a state prison,” Creel said. “In that scenario, it’s difficult to see how he wouldn’t be either impeached and convicted or otherwise removed via the 25th Amendment due to his ‘incapacity.’”
But with a third of the Supreme Court being Trump appointees, Svante Myrick, president of People For the American Way and former mayor of Ithaca, N.Y., said he could see the Court ruling in Trump’s favor and allowing him to serve any legal consequences at a later time.
“Uncharted legal territory with stakes this high means questions like that usually get kicked up to the Supreme Court. Given that, Donald Trump appointed three members of the Supreme Court on a six-person ultra conservative majority, I think the most likely scenario is that he's allowed to stand for office, and if he wins, he could avoid or at least delay paying his debt to society,” Myrick said.
The 25th Amendment could also be used for a president’s mental competence. While Trump attacks Biden for being “cognitively impaired,” Trump is 77 years old and isn’t always sharp himself. He recently said Biden would lead the U.S. into “World War II” and, in the same speech, said he was leading former President Barack Obama in polls for the 2024 election.
Trump has the 14th Amendment applied to him
The Constitution's 14th Amendment also poses a potential roadblock to Trump’s ability to serve out a presidency, some conservative Constitutional scholars say, as quoted by the New York Times.
The amendment, in part, bans anyone who “engaged in insurrection” against the United States from holding any civil, military or elected office without the approval of two-thirds of the House and Senate.
Trump’s second federal indictment involves four felony counts in relation to Jan. 6 and Trump’s alleged effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
“Donald Trump cannot be president — cannot run for president, cannot become president, cannot hold office — unless two-thirds of Congress decides to grant him amnesty for his conduct on Jan. 6,” William Baude, a professor of law at the University of Chicago, told the Times.
The 14th Amendment originally intended to prevent Confederate officials from gaining power after the Civil War, but how the disqualification clause would be applied is unclear to legal experts, especially since it’s never been used in the case of a president before, FindLaw, a Reuters company, reported.
Trump is impeached for a third time, then convicted and disqualified from serving as president
If the Supreme Court does say “nobody's above the law, and that includes the president” and lets the criminal justice system do its work, Creel said, Trump could still be disqualified from the presidency via the political system.
“We have a blueprint for how to do that. Impeachment. Conviction. Removal. That's how you could do it, and so you can see him taking office and having that avenue, where he's president for a day and then they just kind of have this perfunctory removal,” Creel said.
Trump was twice impeached while in office, but was acquitted on all counts by the Senate in both cases.
Congress could technically impeach Trump now with the goal of simply disqualifying him from running for elected office. Recall that Trump’s second impeachment trial took place several weeks after he left the White House.
But with Republicans currently controlling the House, where any impeachment proceeding would begin, such a scenario is exceedingly remote.
Certain states disqualify Trump from the ballot, making an Electoral College victory impossible
If Trump isn’t disqualified from running for president at the federal level, states could still disqualify him on the same grounds, Creel said.
Two advocacy groups, The Free Speech For People and Mi Familia Vota Education Fund, have written letters to election officials in California, Colorado, Georgia, Michigan, Massachusetts, New York, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania pushing for the states to bar Trump from appearing on their ballots, citing the 14th Amendment, Newsweek reported.
“Individual states do have through their own electoral mechanisms, individuals with the authority to remove him from the ballot,” Creel said. “That could potentially happen, which would ultimately, it would still go to the Supreme Court, but it would very potentially deny him the ability to get on those ballots, and therefore disqualify him.”
A judge in Colorado is expected to rule by Thanksgiving in a lawsuit aimed at keeping Trump off the ballot based on his alleged role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.
But with most trial dates to be determined, Geer says Trump likely won’t get disqualified from the state ballot while the cases are still pending.
“Innocent `til proven guilty is the mantra of the country and that applies to the former president, and that'll keep him from facing those kinds of things unless suddenly he was to be convicted, which he'll be drawing that process out as long as he can,” Geer said.
Trump accepts pardon promise with the understanding that he’ll quit the race
James Long, professor of political science at the University of Washington, said it could be another Republican who makes a deal to pardon Trump.
“Chris Christie probably wouldn’t do this, but maybe some of the others would,” Long said. “If they’re all on a debate stage, a journalist should say, ‘Are you willing, now, to say whether you would pardon Donald Trump on federal charges?’"
“I could see him doing a back-room deal … where he says, ‘Look, I’ll drop out of the race and support you and if you win, you have to promise to pardon me, and he’ll throw the full weight of MAGA behind that agreement.”'
An even more exotic and unlikely scenario is Biden pardoning Trump with the understanding that Trump will quit the presidential race.
Biden, whose comments about Trump’s legal troubles have been minimal of late, has never spoken of such an idea.
A most imperfect historical parallel would be President Gerald Ford’s pardoning of President Richard Nixon after Nixon resigned amid the Watergate scandal. But there’s no evidence Ford’s pardon involved either an overt or secret quid pro quo, according to the National Constitution Center, and came only after Nixon had officially stepped down.
Also: Could Trump serve as president while set to serve time?
In short: yes.
There’s precedent that presidents don’t have full legal immunity — look at the 1997 Supreme Court ruling in Clinton v. Jones, Creel says — but Trump could be still allowed to serve any prison time post-presidency if convicted and sentenced for any of the 91 charges.
That would require the Supreme Court ruling that Trump couldn’t have his presidential duties interfered with by state level charges.
“We have to just set them aside to the point where he could realistically, in that scenario if that's what the Supreme Court says, be told January 20, at 12:01 p.m., 2028, report for incarceration in the state of Georgia,” Creel said. “That's an actual realistic possibility that could go his way.”
A tag inside a "Truth. Vote Vivek." hat distributed in Iowa by the Vivek Ramaswamy presidential campaign shows that the cap comes from a company called Otto and was made in Myanmar.
Republican presidential candidates, Vivek Ramaswamy (L) and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R) participate in the first debate of the GOP primary season hosted by